NAMO YA NA MANO
The votes were in and counted, the results declared, the wounds licked and the fire crackers burst but what exactly did the recent elections in India really prove!
- Indian National Congress is neither Indian nor national and definitely not Congress. It epitomises corruption, inefficiency, indifference and irreverence. And they were punished for it - in states where they were in power as well as in states where they were not! Even the tragedy of 32 dead Chattisgarh congressman could not generate enough sympathy even to win an election in that state.
- A clean, educated, urban face of politics was clearly rewarded in the form of AAP. Both Congress and BJP were guilty of not taking AAP seriously! Dikshit never recognised AAP as a party and NAMO questioned if Kejriwal was trustworthy having broken away from his mentor Anna. Clearly the electorate thought otherwise. While AAP may not win landslide in 2014 at a national level it is certainly a force to watch out for in 2018.
- The formidable NAMO effect is not so apparent. People definitely want change but is it called NAMO? the verdict is out! How does a RSS rooted leader satisfy the demands of an urban India. There is a disconnect and he needs to address it. Or see Congress take the dumb votes while AAP and regional parties cut into the smart vote. He certainly has a fight on his hands and he knows it.
- The Caste Based votes are being replaced by the Class based votes. This brand of politics is new to India. Vote banks were supposed to be Mandir/Masjid embracing, rice/blanket loving people who were interested in the next meal and handouts. Instead politicians in 2014 will deal with policy/economically tuned in voters who don't want "here and now" but something more. How will 500+ MPs ( a large proportion of them thugs and criminals) deal with this new normal?
Either way you look at it - the next 6 months is going to very insightful. Perhaps the most important aspects I would be looking forward to are:
- who leads the Congress? Don't think it would be Rahul! Doesn't have what it takes and won't be subject to a losing cause by his mother.
- Which states does AAP fight in the next elections? my guess is they will target the metros and set the stage for 2018. But fighting the Shiv Sena, Trinamool and AIADMK would be disparate and fun :)
- How does UP/Bihar react? Whilst not the urban haven the people would have seen the outcomes in neighbouring states. What happens there would set the tone for the outcome of 2014.
One thing is for sure - both politicians and voters will be wondering if being a minority or chasing a minority will be beneficial in the years to come.
NAMO ya NA Mano we are in for interesting times!
Dear Deepak
ReplyDeleteRead your NAMO insight and have to say that several points you have made are valid. And many of these thoughts resonate in the well educated individual.
There are some real issues that need addressing though. A fast growing disparity between the classes is creating a class divide that can only spell doom for the future generations which will be cursed with a variation of the zamindari system. This class divide will make the populace as disparate in economic demographics and as desperate to scale class boundaries. There is no end to greed.
Is a purely socialist system the answer? I cannot think so since moderation in everything is wise. A mix-and-match of socialist, capitalist and poverty-diminishing policies will make for a better tomorrow. Who can bring about such radical change? Perception says that an RSS activist cannot. Reality says NAMO has done in Gujarat what many have aspired but never achieved. Can NAMO scale this model all over India if he is given the reins of the country? Doubtful. Not because I doubt his capabilities, but because I cannot underestimate the opposition he will face - from the center, from the factions, from the minorities and from the likes of Trinamool and AIADMK.
Congress knows that they have lost the next one. They will sit it out and wait for 2018 to project Rahul Gandhi as the harbinger of change. Unless our mentality changes and we do not have to rely on the perception of "foreigners are the only ones with vision", we cannot progress. What little progress was achieved under Bajpayeeji is now undermined. The rupee is at an all time low, India is perceived as the land of rapes and third grade call centers, a den for con-artists and the only successful brand that has emerged from India in the last decade is Bollywood.
It is premature on my behalf to make so many assumptions. Who knows what impact the AAP will have in the next 6 months. Today AAP is supplying a certain amount of free water to Delhi households, tomorrow they might successfully slash power rates but is that going to impact the standard of living positively for the common man on a large scale? The real heartlands of India are its villages and they are now a dying landscape - diminishing in population, starved of electricity and water, stripped of the farms that used to thrive even a decade and a half ago and constantly eroded by urbanization. It is here that change at the grassroots needs to come. After working at the largest Cooperative Extension Service in the USA, I can vouch for its effectiveness and can see the benefits of such an organization in India. But who cares for the villagers with next to none buying power?